The United States moves 72.7% of its freight by weight on trucks — 11.27 billion tons per year, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA). That requires an army: 3.58 million truck drivers employed across the country in 2024. But that number isn’t enough. The industry is short an estimated 60,000 to 82,000 drivers, and if current trends hold, the ATA projects that gap could widen to 160,000 by 2028.
At the Dave Fons Memorial Fund, we talk a lot about safe driving. But there’s a conversation the industry needs to have about what happens when we don’t have enough trained, experienced drivers behind the wheel — and how the shortage directly threatens safety on our roads.
The Experience Gap Is the Safety Gap
Here’s the statistic that should concern every road user: according to FMCSA data, truck drivers with fewer than 5 years of experience are 41% more likely to be involved in a crash than those with more experience. Drivers with a decade or more behind the wheel have a 28% lower crash involvement rate.
That’s not a knock on new drivers — everyone starts somewhere. It’s a reality check about what happens when an industry under pressure rushes people through training to fill empty seats.
The Pressure to Fill Seats
When carriers can’t find enough drivers, the consequences ripple outward:
- Shortened training timelines. The federal Entry-Level Driver Training (ELDT) requirements set a floor, but some carriers treat it as a ceiling. Classroom hours and behind-the-wheel time get compressed to move people into trucks faster.
- Inexperienced drivers on difficult routes. New CDL holders may find themselves running mountain passes, winter highways, or dense urban routes before they’ve developed the judgment those situations demand.
- Extended hours for existing drivers. When there aren’t enough drivers to cover the freight, the drivers who are available get pushed harder. Fatigue — a factor in a significant share of truck crashes — becomes more likely.
- Lower hiring standards. Carriers desperate for drivers may relax background checks, accept weaker driving records, or overlook red flags they’d normally catch.
Why Drivers Leave
The shortage isn’t just about recruitment — it’s about retention. The ATA estimates the industry needs to hire roughly 110,000 new drivers every year just to keep pace with retirements, career changes, and growth. Some of the root causes:
- Lifestyle demands. Long-haul drivers spend weeks away from family. Irregular schedules, limited access to healthy food, and isolation take a physical and mental toll.
- Compensation vs. conditions. While pay has improved, many drivers feel it doesn’t match the responsibility of operating an 80,000-pound vehicle in all weather and traffic conditions.
- Age demographics. The average truck driver is getting older. As experienced drivers retire, they take decades of safety knowledge with them.
- Regulatory burden. Hours-of-service rules, electronic logging devices, and compliance requirements — while important for safety — add pressure that some drivers find unsustainable.
What Can Be Done
Solving the driver shortage isn’t simple, but the solutions that work best are the ones that also improve safety:
- Invest in quality training, not just faster training. Programs like the FTBA CDL Training Program — which the Dave Fons Memorial Fund helps fund through scholarships — emphasize safety as a career-long commitment, not just a test to pass.
- Improve working conditions. Better rest areas, more predictable schedules, improved health and wellness support, and technology that reduces — rather than adds to — driver stress.
- Mentorship programs. Pairing new CDL holders with experienced drivers during their first months on the road dramatically improves safety outcomes and retention.
- Recognize and reward safe drivers. Programs like our Safe Driver of the Month award send a signal that safety is valued and celebrated, not just expected.
- Attract a broader workforce. The industry is working to recruit more women, veterans, and younger drivers (the minimum age for interstate commercial driving is 21, though a federal pilot program is exploring lowering it to 18 with additional training requirements).
Every Driver Matters
The 3.58 million professional truck drivers in this country drove 329.86 billion miles in 2023 (ATA). The overwhelming majority of those miles were driven safely, professionally, and without incident. That’s worth acknowledging — and protecting.
The driver shortage threatens that safety record by putting pressure on an already demanding profession. At the Dave Fons Memorial Fund, we believe the answer isn’t just more drivers — it’s better-supported, better-trained, and better-recognized drivers.
If you’re in the industry, nominate a safe driver. If you know someone considering a trucking career, point them toward scholarship opportunities. And if you share the road with trucks, learn how to do it safely.
Together, we drive toward ZERO.
